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3 Jul 2020

NZD/USD extends consolidation from three-week top to battle 0.6500

  • NZD/USD fails to keep the bounce off 0.6504 beyond 0.6519.
  • Market’s risk-on mood, backed mainly by the upbeat US employment data, sours following worries virus updates.
  • Pandemic news will gain major attention amid the light calendar.
  • Second-tier Aussie data, China Caixin Services PMI could offer additional clues.

NZD/USD drops to 0.6504, before bouncing off to 0.6510, at the start of the Asian session on Friday. The kiwi pair became the biggest G10 gainer while surging to 0.6538, the highest since June 11, during the previous day. However, the following weakness pushes the pair towards the 0.6500 threshold, still being near multi-day high and up for the second week in a row.

Be it the hopes of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine or strong employment numbers from the world’s largest economy, everything was rosy to propel the Antipodeans before the surge in the US pandemic updates that renewed market fears. Also exerting downside pressure on the trading sentiment are the latest comments from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Hong Kong activist Nathan Law.

US Nonfarm Payrolls crossed 3,000K forecasts with 4,800K while Unemployment Rate also shrank more than 12.3% expected to 11.1%. Even so, analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, “July could see the recovery in jobs slow given the recent rise in COVID-19 cases, shelved plans for further economic reopenings, and renewed restrictions in some states. Employment in June was 9.6% below its February level with 14.6m jobs yet to return. There is still a long way to go.”

Elsewhere, the US continues to break record pandemic numbers with the latest landmark, unfortunately, being above 51,000. The resurgence of the deadly disease pushed back many re-openings, the recent ones in New York. Additionally, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, mentioned that the virus never eased and signaled a bumpy road ahead.

On the other hand, US Secretary of State Pompeo tweeted that Hong Kong will become just another communist-run city. The downbeat comments join worrisome statements from Hong Kong’s activist Nathan Law pushing to oust Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks erased the initial rise to end Thursday on a soft positive footing. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields slip 1.3 basis points (bps) to visit 0.669% mark before a few minutes.

Moving on, a lack of domestic data will push the kiwi traders to watch over overseas indicators from Australia and China for fresh impetus, not to forget the key risk catalysts. It should also be noted that the virus woes are likely to keep the quote’s near-term gains under check with any escalation in the Sino-American tussle likely recalling the bears.

Technical analysis

A clear break beyond 0.6535/40 becomes necessary for the NZD/USD pair bulls to question the June month top of 0.6585 while also aiming for 0.6600.

 

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